Monday, August 24, 2009

Baltic Blog……Security & Intelligence Briefs, International, Baltic & Russia News August 18, 2009

 
 
 
 
Political Cartoon by Steve Breen
 
 
 
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Global Politician: Medvedev-Merkel duo have started campaign to excuse Stalin, Hitler

Global Politician: Medvedev-Merkel duo have started campaign to excuse Stalin, Hitler
Adolf Hitler and Josef Stalin Adolf Hitler and Josef Stalin
 
 
Yesterday, 22:28
Yuriy Syrotyuk writes: Ukraine’s leadership must remember that cowardly policies of ignoring threats, humbly accepting brutal invectives and hoping to “appease the aggressor”, be it Moscow or Berlin, will always lead to catastrophic results. Danger looms over Ukraine and the states unfriendly to us do not even think it necessary to hide this. The realization of this fact must unite the Ukrainian nation so that it will resist any violation of our sovereignty.
Medvedev-Merkel duo begun a campaign of excusing Stalin and Hitler   (link)
 
 
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Japan and Russia have never signed a peace treaty over World War II. The reason for this is that there is a dispute over four islands off Hokkaido that were occupied by Soviet forces that were once in Japanese hands. A 1956 Japanese-Soviet joint declaration signed in Moscow stated that Shikotan island and the Habomai islets would be returned to Japan after a peace treaty was concluded between Japan and the Soviet Union.

The Japanese call the islands the ‘Northern Territories’ and the Russians call the islands the Southern Kurils.

Japan has rejected the Russian solution to the land dispute. Russia has offered that they would return two of the four islands seized by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II. Japan expects that all four will be returned. Japan has been flexible on the timing of the return of the islands and the recognition of Japanese sovereignty.

According to a 2006 report by the Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic Studies, the “Northern Territories” problem is a multilaterally created bilateral problem. “Chapter II of the San Francisco Peace Treaty specified that Japan renounced Southern Sakhalin and the Kurile Islands, but did not specify these territories’ recipient or their precise boundaries. The treaty was legitimized in a multilateral framework in being signed by forty-nine countries, but the signatories did not include the USSR.” According to the report, agreement to transfer Southern Sakhalin and the Kurils from Japan to the USSR was reached by Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin at their Yalta Conference in February 1945. When the parties saw that the San Francisco Treaty did not include clear boundary demarcations, the problem arose which led to there being no peace treaty between Russia and Japan.

In 1951, Prime Minister of Japan S. Yoshida, speaking at the Conference in San Francisco, stated:

… With respect to the Kuriles and South Sakhalin, I cannot yield to the claim of the Soviet Delegate that Japan had grabbed them by aggression.

At the time of the opening of Japan, her ownership of two islands of Etorofu and Kunashiri of the South Kuriles was not questioned at all by the Czarist government. But the North Kuriles north of Urruppu and the southern half of Sakhalin were areas open to both Japanese and Russian settlers. On May 7, 1875 the Japanese and Russian Governments effected through peaceful negotiations an arrangement under which South Sakhalin was made Russian territory, and the North Kuriles were in exchange made Japanese territory. But really, under the name of “exchange” Japan simply
ceded South Sakhalin to Russia in order to settle the territorial dispute. It was under the Treaty of Portsmouth of September 5, 1905 concluded through the intermediary of President Theodore Roosevelt of the United States that South Sakhalin became also Japanese territory.Both the Kuriles and South Sakhalin were taken unilaterally by the Soviet Union as of September 20, 1945, shortly after Japan’s surrender. Even the islands of Habomai and Shikotan, constituting part of Hokkaido, one of Japan’s four main islands, are still being occupied by Soviet forces simply because they happened to be garrisoned by Japanese troops at the time when the war ended.

The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the USSR A.A. Gromyko, speaking at the Conference in San Francisco, stated:

“The rights of the Soviet Union to the southern part of the Sakhalin Island and all the islands adjacent to it, as well as to the Kurile Islands, which are at present under the sovereignty of the Soviet Union, are equally indisputable.

Thus, while resolving the territorial questions in connection with the preparation of a peace treaty with Japan, there should not be any lack of clarity if we are to proceed from the indisputable rights of states to territories which Japan got hold of by the force of arms…

Similarly, by attempting to violate grossly the sovereign rights of the Soviet Union regarding Southern Sakhalin and the islands adjacent to it, as well as the Kurile Islands already under the sovereignty of the Soviet Union, the draft also confines itself to a mere mention of the renunciation by Japan of rights, title and claims to these territories and makes no mention of the historic appurtenance of these territories and the indisputable obligation on the part of Japan to recognize the sovereignty of the Soviet Union over these parts of the territory of the USSR.

We do not speak of the fact that by introducing such proposals on territorial questions the United States and Great Britain, who at an appropriate time, signed the Cairo and Potsdam Declarations, as well as the Yalta Agreement, have taken the path of flagrant violation of obligations undertaken by them under these international agreements.”

The omission of text in the peace treaty that specifically stated that Japan acknowledged the sovereignty of the USSR over southern Sakhalin and the Kurils resulted in the Soviet Union’s delegation refusing to sign the San Francisco Peace Treaty.

Soon thereafter, the 1956 Joint Declaration of Japan and the USSR was signed on October 19, 1956 in Moscow and was ratified on December 7, 1956.

Not Quite Rapprochment

The disputed territory was discussed at the opening of Russia’s first liquefied natural gas plant. In February, OAO Gazprom opened the new plant on the Sakhalin Island. According to the Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso, who attended, Russia is “building a window to Asia” and it will provide about 7% of Japan’s LNG

demand. He is the first Japanese Prime Minister to visit the island since World War II. According to the BBC, Mr. Aso and Mr. Medvedev spoke after the inauguration of the LNG plant and they have accelerated their efforts to resolve the territorial dispute without leaving it to future generations.

According to the Moscow Times, President Medvedev and Japanese Prime Minister Aso met on the sidelines of the Group of Eight meeting in L’Aquila, Italy. They exchanged views on the dispute of the Kuril Islands. They have “agreed to disagree.”

On June 11th, the lower house of the Japanese parliament amended a bill on what Japan calls the Northern Territories and declared the islands “historic territory of Japan.” Russia’s reaction and response at the time was disapproving. On July 3rd the upper house of the Japanese parliament approved that the four southern islands of the Kuril chain belong to Japan.

“These actions by Japan are out of place and unacceptable. It is well known that the South Kuril Islands legitimately went over to the Soviet Union and then to Russia on the basis of the results of World War II. Consequently, any ‘return’ of those territories has never been, is not, and cannot be considered,” the document said.

“It is a bewildering fact that Tokyo has recently decided to escalate its illegitimate territorial claims on Russia. First, unacceptable statements on ‘the illegal occupation of the South Kurils by Russia’ were made at the highest governmental level, and now Parliament is persistently voicing the objective of ‘returning’ them,” the statement continued.

“It has not gone unnoticed for Moscow that the further development of visa-exempt exchanges with Russians living on the islands and the ‘rejuvenation’ of the Japanese participants of the so-called ‘movement for the return of the northern territories’ have been named among ‘methods’ of achieving the goal of ‘the earliest possible return of the islands,’” it said.

“The fanning of territorial claims on Russia, with the attempt to tie visa-exempt exchanges between Russia and Japan to this, does not promote bilateral dialogue on signing a peace treaty and may impede contacts in the border regions of the two countries,” the statement said.

Prior to the parliamentary moves, political analyst Ekaterina Koldunova said that ownership of the Kuril Islands is an issue of strategic importance for Russia since it’s the country’s access to the Pacific Ocean. 

Whether or not the Kuril Islands are as strategically important to Russia as the islands may have been a few decades ago has been a topic of discussion among other strategic experts.

Since, Russia’s State Duma responded to the parliamentary moves suggesting that the Japanese parliament disavow its decision in order to further talks on a peace agreement.

As recently as August 8th, Japan has been sending delegations to the islands under visa-free exchange programs. On August 8th, a delegation of 64 Japanese teachers and students visited Shikotan Island under a bilateral visa-free exchange program. In order to deepen mutual understanding between Japan and Russia toward a solution of the territorial dispute, the exchange program was launched in 1992.

Russia has interpreted the June parliamentary decision as a dangerous precedent in world politics and in the Asia-Pacific region and as a threat to Russia’s national security, according to Vladimir Kozin, an independent political analyst. Kozin also has said that from the Russian perspective the June parliamentary move has been

regarded as an attempt to redraw postwar borders already fixed by international law.

However, while the debate now seems to have shifted to be centered on the parliamentary decisions in Japan, whether both parties will ever try to achieve the conditions as set out in the 1956 Japanese-Soviet declaration in order to move forward on a peace treaty seems less probable at this point. So does the prospect of using the framework of international law. Should a problem that started in a multilateral framework be solved within another multilateral framework like the UN? Both countries are using domestic politics to assert their historical claims to the territory and are not looking for mutually acceptable solutions to the dispute.  While Japan has been hoping for an official end to World War II by resolving the Kuril dispute, Russia has been for years emphasizing that stronger trade ties will normalize Japan-Russia relations.  

Japan has since stated that there would be less economic cooperation in Russia’s Far East without progress in finding a solution to the territorial problem. Japanese Prime Minister Aso has expressed his frustration with the status quo by stating that “Japan cannot be satisfied with this situation. Unless Russia takes practical steps to sign a peace treaty, we will be unable to develop partner relations with it in the Asia-Pacific region.”  The impact to both economies might not be deserving casualties.  

Analysts have been considering how Aso’s clear-cut statement will affect Japanese business owners who might be willing to conduct business in Russia even without a political solution surrounding the Kuril Islands dispute.

Most recently, Federation Council of Russia Chairman Sergey Mironov arrived in Sakhalin Region on August 11th in order to get acquainted with the Kuril Islands and to get to know the social and economic situation in the region. 

It has labeled the Japanese parliamentary initiative as “the most unfriendly gesture, which is insulting to the Russian people.”

Over the years, solutions as to how to resolve the territorial issue have included involving a third party, especially the United States, in the negotiations. Other solutions have included cooperative ways to share the land, a two island solution, and retaining the status quo.

http://www.examiner.com/x-5249-SF-Foreign-Policy-Examiner~y2009m8d18-Annexed-islands-in-the-sea-Russia–Japan-since-the-end-of-World-War-II-not-status-quo-ante-bellum

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Russia, Czech Republic: Trading Diplomat Expulsions

Czech President Vaclav Klaus (L) with Russia's ambassador to the Czech Republic, Alexei Fedotov, on Jan. 7
Czech President Vaclav Klaus (L) with Russian Ambassador to the Czech Republic Alexei Fedotov on Jan. 7
Summary

A day after the Czech Republic expelled two Russian diplomats, Russia expelled two Czech diplomats Aug. 18. Such tit-for-tat expulsions are not uncommon, but the Czech Republic’s expulsion of the Russian diplomats likely is linked to Russian plans to undermine support for a U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) installation on Czech soil. Russia has proven before that it can influence public opinion abroad, and the Czech population is already divided over the U.S. BMD issue.

Analysis

Russia expelled two Czech diplomats Aug. 18, according to an announcement from a Russian official. This came in response to the Czech Republic’s expulsion of two Russian diplomats a day earlier. The Czech government accused the two Russian diplomats — one of them a deputy military attache — of spying for the Kremlin.

Such tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats are not uncommon, especially between Russia and European countries which still are home to a large number of Cold War-era “diplomats.” In the past few months alone, Russian diplomats allegedly involved in spying have been expelled by countries such as Ukraine, Estonia and the United Kingdom, and Moscow has promptly sent these countries’ diplomats back home in response.

But the occurrence in the Czech Republic is a bit more intriguing. According to STRATFOR sources, the Czechs are accusing the expelled Russian diplomats of working directly for the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, with the goal of influencing public opinion against the construction of a U.S. radar facility on Czech soil. This radar facility is a key part of the United States’ controversial plan to develop a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system in the Czech Republic and Poland. Russia sees this plan as a strategic threat. Though Washington has said the BMD system is not meant to be used against Russia but to serve as a defense against rogue states like Iran, this provides little relief to Moscow. Russia is not as worried about the BMD system itself as it is about the associated U.S. boots on the ground.

Russia has proven over the years that it can be quite effective at masterminding grassroots movements abroad that are in line with its interests, such as the Russian-supported anti-nuclear movement in the West during the 1960s (which still maintains a level of support to this day). Moscow has also strongly asserted itself in the

former Soviet republics to maintain influence, promoting Russian interests via outlets such as religion and youth groups and other social movements. In a recent address, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev advocated the building of Russian “cultural centers” in Ukraine and referred to the two countries’ shared history and brotherhood.

Russia’s efforts to influence Czech public opinion — if that is in fact what the expelled diplomats were doing — are facilitated by the split among the Czech population over the BMD issue. A recent poll indicated that 68 percent of the population is against a BMD installation on Czech territory, with many seeing it as an unnecessarily provocative move. Furthermore, the Czech government is perennially fragile and divided. Former Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek’s government fell only months ago in the middle of the Czech Republic’s EU presidency. The current caretaker government of Prime Minister Jans Fischer remains just as unstable, and BMD plans are one of the most divisive issues.

The activity of alleged Russian spies in the Czech Republic suggests that Russia is still working in its own way to advance Moscow’s interests abroad. The Czech government’s weakness and the population’s division on the BMD issue make it easier for Moscow to influence the Czech anti-BMD movement rather effectively, and create a big headache for both Prague and Washington.
 

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Battle for Arctic territory continues, Canada increases military presence, Russia is best equipped

August 16, 10:22 PM · Joe D’Aquisto - Tucson World Travel Examiner

Russia’s NS 50 is the largest Icebreaker in the world.

Canada has recently begun Military exercises in the North Arctic region of their Country. This has been an ongoing discussion over the last few years. Canada, USA, Denmark, Norway and Russia are the only 5 countries that lay claim to regions of the Arctic. Due to global warming many of the ice caps and glaciers are melting and scientists believe there may be valuable natural resources such as minerals and even oil.

There has been a lot of speculation as to who will control the Arctic territory. Back in 2007 Russian explorers planted their flag on the seabed below the North Pole which caused a lot of ruckus and controversy among the other countries. Although this topic has been somewhat under the radar expect to see more coverage as time progresses and more ice starts to melt.

The Canadian Forces are attempting to show strength. The country’s military is not viewed as very powerful by most other nations and Denmark and Norway’s defense forces are significantly smaller than Russia’s or the United States. Denmark has just fewer than 23,000 active military members, Norway has around 27,000 and Canada is at right around 66,000. Russia has the 5th largest active duty military behind China, USA, India and North Korea. If you were to count active and inactive duty members, Russia would outnumber the United States.

Unlike Antarctica, which has a treaty that restricts territorial claims, there is no agreement on the Arctic region. So questions about drilling and territorial claims or even who would be responsible for environmental damage are very unclear.

Security expert John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org speculates that whoever has the best access to the Arctic region is most likely to control that area and right now it is Russia. Arctic sea ice is usually 1 to 3 meters up to (9 feet) thick. It is thickest during autumn and winter and shrinks during the spring and summer. Researchers have studied this for the past 50 years. It takes a special kind of ship called an “Icebreaker” to penetrate this ice. As of 2008, Russia reportedly had 6 Icebreaker boats, working to increase their fleet to 14. The USA has 2 that are worn out and very old. Russia also boasts of owning the world’s largest one, completing it in May of last year. These boats can take a long time to manufacture, up to 10 years.  Canada has 2 active Icebreakers and has had this technology for over 100 years.

For more information on Icebreaker statistics navigate to:

http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/List_of_icebreakers

Canada is also concerned by the melting of ice each year through their Northwest Passage area, again according to scientists to be the result of global warming. This passage area if melted could be a key area that links the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean, providing a significant shipping route for the country.

For statistics on World Military population navigate to:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_active_troops

*The numbers provided are an approximation and not exact

 

Related Articles: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8204531.stm

Copyright 2009 Examiner.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Author
Joe D’Aquisto is an Examiner from Tucson. You can see Joe’s articles at: “http://www.Examiner.com/x-14096-Tucson-World-Travel-Examiner”
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Russian punk rockers rage against the Putin machine
Aug 16 08:26 AM US/Eastern

 
 
Alexei Nikonov (2nd left) and fellow members of the Russian punk rock group PTVP pose for a picture at a band rehearsal in St. Petersburg on August 10. Brashly shouting out his lyrics in crowded, smoky clubs, Nikonov zeroes in on provocative themes that most musicians here ignore — authoritarianism and injustice in today’s Russia.
 
 
 
Brashly shouting out his lyrics in crowded, smoky clubs, Alexei Nikonov zeroes in on provocative themes that most musicians here ignore — authoritarianism and injustice in today’s Russia.

Nikonov, the outspoken singer of Saint Petersburg-based punk rock band PTVP, saves much of his venom for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, referring to him as a “pig” in one of his most strident songs.

“We live in a feudal society,” Nikonov fumed in a backstage interview before a recent concert. “Everything is decided by one person, the dictator. The dictator decides everything.”

This is not the sort of opinion one can find anymore on Russian television channels or most radio stations, where criticism of the government faded away after Putin became president in 2000.

Though Putin stepped down last year to become prime minister, he is still widely seen as Russia’s true ruler.

Meanwhile Russian rock music lost much of its rebellious spirit after being at the forefront of perestroika, the liberal reforms introduced by Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in the 1980s, musicians and critics say.

Ironically, some of the leading figures in 1980s rock now perform at patriotic concerts organised by the Kremlin.

But in Saint Petersburg, a city long seen as Russia’s “window to the West”, a handful of bands have defied the trend and continue to speak out.

They include PTVP, whose full name translates as “The Last Tanks in Paris,” and some veteran bands who complain of being marginalized on television and radio because of their politics.

“Most bands, for some reason, have become conformist and most music is just fun,” said Sergey Chernov, a music columnist for the St. Petersburg Times newspaper who has followed Russian rock since the 1980s.

“PTVP are unique in touching on political and social subjects. There are probably two or three well-known bands who do this.”

In 1981, when Saint Petersburg was called Leningrad, Communist authorities allowed the opening of the Soviet Union’s first legal rock-music club.

Though closely overseen by the KGB, the Leningrad Rock Club became the heart of a vibrant scene in which many bands inserted veiled protest messages into their songs, which won enormous popularity as perestroika anthems.

But with the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, the old censorship vanished and capitalism became the new master of Russia’s music industry.

The result was the “degradation” of Russian rock, said Mikhail Borzykin, the frontman of Televizor, a band which got its start in the Leningrad Rock Club and which is now one of Russia’s few politically outspoken rock groups.

“When it comes one’s position as a citizen, it has become unfashionable to express it openly. There is an attitude that politics should be separate from art,” Borzykin said.

The crushing of media freedom under Putin also had a devastating effect, as television and radio stations were taken over by Kremlin-friendly owners who feared the slightest hint of dissent, Borzykin said.

“All show-business managers are connected, through rent or other financial obligations, to officials,” he said.

“So they are very afraid of losing their small business by getting into any conflicts, even petty ones, with the authorities.”

Last year, Televizor — which means “Television” — got into a conflict with a Saint Petersburg television channel that asked them to do a live performance, then canceled it after reviewing the songs Borzykin planned to sing.

The channel said it was because the songs contained inappropriate words, but Borzykin called it political censorship.

For radically outspoken PTVP, which was founded in 1996 in the small town of Vyborg near Russia’s border with Finland, the problems are even worse.

Several times over the years, police rushed the stage and stopped concerts after Nikonov sang about Putin, and once in Vyborg he was hauled off to jail before being freed without charges, band members recalled.

“It is mostly provincial towns that are afraid,” Nikonov said.

The band is undoubtedly disrespectful to Putin, especially in its 2002 song “FSB Whore,” whose title refers to the KGB’s post-Soviet successor agency, which Putin once led.

The song’s lyrics are: “Don’t listen to anything! / He always lies to you! / Putin, Putin, Putin! / A pig will find filth everywhere!”

Whether due to censorship or simply the limited appeal of its raw punk rock, PTVP’s songs virtually never appear on television or radio. The band plays at clubs where it has a small but loyal following.

“They have a clear point of view on what’s happening in Russia today on the political front,” said Pavel Isakov, a young fan at the recent PTVP concert in Saint Petersburg.

“They have the right approach to this, the position that young people share, and not what the media like to promote.”

 

 

 
 
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Russia to Build Berlin-Style Wall in Abkhazia, Georgia Says
August 17, 2009
By Helena BedwellRussia plans to build a “Berlin- style” wall along the de facto border between Georgia and its separatist region of Abkhazia, Georgia’s Foreign Ministry said.

“This once again proves that Russia’s real intention is to turn Abkhazia into a military outpost and to isolate the region from the rest of the world,” Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister Davit Jalaghania told reporters in the capital Tbilisi today.

Abkhaz Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba said planned improvements of border defenses “may involving building a wall in some areas that are considered dangerous.” The Abkhaz government is still demarcating the border, which runs along the Inguri River, Shamba said by telephone from the regional capital Sukhumi.

Russia routed Georgia’s U.S.-trained army in a five-day war last August over the breakaway region of South Ossetia. Moscow later recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia as sovereign states, a move condemned by the U.S. and many European countries. Russia has agreed to defend both regions’ borders.

Russia has deployed 1,700 soldiers in Abkhazia and will increase that number to 3,636 by the end of this year when renovations are completed at its military base in the region, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said on Aug. 12. The number of Russian military personnel stationed in South Ossetia is slightly smaller, Serdyukov said. 

URL: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aEjRH.MD3Zg0

 
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The Moscow Times » Issue 4211 » Opinion

Putin’s Golden Age

17 August 2009By Alexei Bayer

To Our Readers

The Moscow Times welcomes letters to the editor. Letters for publication should be signed and bear the signatory’s address and telephone number.
Letters to the editor should be sent by fax to (7-495) 232-6529, by e-mail to oped@imedia.ru, or by post. The Moscow Times reserves the right to edit letters.

Email the Opinion Page Editor

Rereading my recent Moscow Times columns, I find that their negative tone conveys a wrong impression. Actually, I believe that the decade since Vladimir Putin became prime minister has been Russia’s Golden Age. I’m eager to set the record straight — not only because it is August, often a calamitous month in Russia, but also because troubling signs, ranging from the worsening economic crisis to increasingly brazen political murders, are multiplying.

Over the past 10 years, Russia has prospered. Consumers have not had as wide a choice of goods and services — which they can also afford to buy — since 1913. Oil wealth may not have been divided equitably or used rationally, but money has trickled down, at least in Moscow.

By the standards of the recent past, Russians have been remarkably free. There are no limits on foreign travel, and everyone can maintain contacts with foreigners without fear. Aside from the main television channels, journalists can generally write whatever they wish and criticize and ridicule even topmost officials. There is religious freedom and no ideological line that artists and writers must toe. Access to the Internet remains unrestricted.

Until the war with Georgia, Russia had been at peace with its neighbors. It still respects post-Soviet borders, even though it lost historic territories and a large number of Russians are stranded in former Soviet republics.

All in all, the next generation may look back at the Putin era with nostalgia. However, it is precisely the root of the problem. First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov this year declared that Russia could become the world’s most attractive country to live in by 2020. His words deserve to be carved in stone, along with that fabulous declaration by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev: “The current generation of the Soviet people will live under communism.”

Based on every parameter — from incomes, life expectancy and environmental protection to highway quality, corruption, crime and legal protection — Russia is actually one of the worst places to live, at least in Europe. In 10 years of oil-fed prosperity, it has become even less attractive in some ways. Ugly nationalist, illiberal and intolerant forces have become more vociferous, and nostalgia for putative Soviet greatness and revanchist dreams has come to the fore. Any regime change in today’s Russia is bound to be for the worse.

I recently spoke to an American businessman who praised Putin highly — if only because Putin has kept out some very angry people with very murky ideologies. However, the fact that those murky ideologies are on the rise is largely the fault of the Putin regime. At home, it opted for crony state capitalism, rewarding its inner circle by increasing the role of the state in the economy and rolling back liberal reforms. In foreign policy, Russia engaged in a low-grade confrontation with the West, accusing the United States of infringing on Russia’s spheres of influence and picking petty diplomatic squabbles with its neighbors.

Russia is living in a self-imposed international isolation and has an inefficient, nontransparent economy dominated by corrupt bureaucrats and well-connected clans. Shameless personal enrichment has become the sole preoccupation of its elites, who see themselves as temporary caretakers. Much like the Soviet Union, the system fears change and has no mechanism for changing peacefully. Unlike the Soviet Union, however, it offers no solidarity of equal poverty and no hope for a better future. Now, there are the haves and the have-nots and an every-man-for-himself mentality. It does not make for a pretty picture.

Alexei Bayer, a native Muscovite, is a New York-based economist.

 
 
 
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By Zoltan Simon

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) — East Europe’s economies, most of which endured record output declines last quarter, look poised to start recovering from recession in the second half as key export markets in western Europe return to growth.

Industrial production contracted at a slower pace in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia in June, helping the Slovak and Czech economies to grow last quarter from the first three months of the year.

“These are definitely green shoots,” Raffaella Tenconi, a Prague-based economist at Wood & Co., said in a phone interview. “For 2010, there’s definitely mounting evidence that GDP projections will be revised upwards.”

Eastern Europe’s export-reliant economies need a western European recovery to revive their manufacturing sectors and spur job growth. After Germany and France exited their recessions last quarter, prospects have brightened for a resurgence of demand that might help the region’s emerging economies expand.

“We see a good chance that the economic decline has already bottomed out in the region,” said Laszlo Bencsik, Chief Financial Officer at OTP Bank Nyrt., the Hungarian lender with units in Bulgaria, Croatia, Montenegro, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia and Ukraine.

The forint traded at 274.56 per euro at 9:24 a.m. in Budapest, from 271.84 late on Aug. 14. The zloty fell to 4.1927 per euro from 4.1453 and the koruna slipped to 25.772 against Europe’s common currency from 25.686.

Worst Over?

The second quarter may have been the worst for most of the region’s economies.

The Czech Republic on Aug. 14 said its output contracted at a record annual pace of 4.9 percent last quarter, after shrinking 3.9 percent in the previous three months. Romania on Aug. 13 reported an annual economic contraction of 8.8 percent in the second quarter after slumping 6.2 percent in the first three months. Hungary’s economy fell an annual 7.6 percent last quarter, after shrinking 6.7 percent in the first quarter.

In Slovakia, where output grew on the quarter, the economy contracted an annual 5.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with a 5.6 percent slump in the previous three months. Poland is the only eastern European country to have avoided a recession.

At the same time, the decline in Czech industrial output eased to 12.2 percent in June from 22.1 percent at the start of the quarter. Hungary’s industrial output fell an annual 18.8 percent in June, compared with 22.1 percent in May.

Growth

The Czech economy may grow 1.4 percent next year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 economists, with separate surveys forecasting economic expansion in Poland, Russia and Slovakia. Three of eight forecasters expect Hungary’s GDP to increase in 2010. The median forecast is for a 0.5 percent contraction.

Even so, the recovery may be slow, after recessions left most governments hampered by swollen budgets, forcing them to push through austerity measures that may hurt demand, said David Oxley, a London-based economist at Capital Economics.

Hungary, Latvia and Romania have the added burden of meeting budget deficit targets set by the International Monetary Fund, which provided emergency loans to the countries to help them finance their deficits.

“There are signs of easing though it’s still quite a grim economic picture overall for eastern Europe,” Oxley said in a phone interview. “It’s too early to talk about a return to sustained growth.”

Oxley forecasts quicker recovery for Poland and the Czech Republic and a protracted road back to growth for Hungary, Romania and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, where he said budget constraints are tighter.

To contact the reporter on this story: Zoltan Simon in Budapest at zsimon@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=av2×10BeexKI#

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Lithuania’s President; ‘NATO doesn’t have a defence plan for this (Baltic States) region’

July 28, 2009 <!–Ruslanas Iržikevičius–>

As the Lithuanian President Grybauskaite admitted the NATO has no plan a defence plan for the Baltic States.  A custom NATO defence plan for the Baltic States could be expected no earlier than in two years time.

As the BNS writes, a small state has to consider a mixed model for its armed forces, not excluding a certain extent of conscription, Grybauskaite on 28 July told the press after receiving the oath of office of Lithuania’s new Army Chief Major General Arvydas Pocius.

“A little country can think and consider mixed options. Especially as NATO, as you are aware, doesn’t have a defence plan for this region, and won’t have one for another two years at the least,” Grybauskaite said.

The shape Lithuania’s army reserve could take on, i.e. whether this would require reinstating mandatory military training for Lithuania’s youth, is still the object of discussions, Grybauskaite said.

“I haven’t heard any specific proposals, meaning at this time I have nothing to discuss in this respect,” the president spoke.

The North Atlantic Alliance’s developments on a specific defence plan for the Baltic State are yet to be clearly formulated and communicated.

Source BNS

http://irzikevicius.wordpress.com/2009/07/28/lithuania%e2%80%99s-president-%e2%80%98nato-doesnt-have-a-defence-plan-for-this-baltic-states-region%e2%80%99/

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Nigeria: Militants Free Lithuanian Hostages -Baltic Foreign Ministry

Paul Arhewe with Agency Report

15 August 2009

Lagos — Five Lithuanian sailors kidnapped off Nigerian coast have regained their freedom after 11 days under their ordeal, Baltic state’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Rolandas Kacinskas, announced on Friday.

“I can confirm that the kidnapped sailors are free and in good health,” Kacinskas told AFP.

The five men are due to return home within two to three days, he added. Beforehand, they are due to undergo medical checks and be questioned by Nigerian authorities. The Lithuanian-flagged refrigerator vessel, Saturnas, was attacked off Nigeria on August 3 by unidentified men.

The ship had a total crew of 14, all of them Lithuanian citizens. The attackers did not seize the vessel itself but left in a high-speed boat with the hostages.

No information about the captors or means used to win sailors’ release has been made public.

The Saturnas belongs to Lithuania’s Limarko Shipping Company, but like the government, the company had refused to comment on attempts to free its employees.

Last month, militants also freed six foreign crew members of a chemical tanker seized more than two weeks in the Niger Delta region.

Copyright © 2009 Daily Independent. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com).

http://allafrica.com/stories/printable/200908171071.html

 

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Porpoises make welcome Baltic return

Porpoises make welcome Baltic return

Published: 14 Aug 09 16:55 CET
Online: http://www.thelocal.se/21478/20090814/

Dictionary tool Double click on a word to get a translation

Marine biologists have been thrilled to hear of two porpoise sightings in the Baltic Sea in recent days. The blunt-snouted mammals, relatively common off Sweden’s west coast, have become almost extinct in the Baltic.

The Swedish Museum of Natural History is currently carrying out studies on the health, susceptibility to pollution, and genetics of the endangered species.

“To get two reports from the central Baltic in such a short space of time is fantastic,” said museum researcher Anna Roos in a statement.

“We generally just get the occasional report per year form the Baltic Sea and we now encourage anybody who spends time around the Baltic Sea area to keep an eye out for porpoises and report observations to us via our website,” she added.

The museum said the first of the two recent sightings was recorded south-east of Stora Fjärdholmen in the Stockholm archipelago. The second came a week later when a group of five to ten porpoises was spotted between the Söderarm and Tjärven lighthouses north-east of Norrtälje.

Porpoises are small-toothed whales and are related to dolphins. But, unlike dolphins, they can be hard to spot as they are quite shy and rarely leap out above the water’s surface.

Baltic Sea porpoises often die after becoming entangled in fishing nets and are listed as Critically Endangered.  

External link: The Swedish Museum of Natural History’s porpoise link »

Paul O’Mahony (paul.omahony@thelocal.se/08 656 6513)

http://www.thelocal.se/article.php?ID=21478&print=true

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Posted on : 2009-08-17 | Author : DPA
News Category : Europe

Riga - The presidents of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania urged their people Monday to remember the events of 20 years ago that helped lead to the collapse of Communism. Toomas Hendrik Ilves of Estonia, Valdis Zatlers of Latvia and Dalia Grybauskaite of Lithuania released a joint statement calling on their citizens to take part in a Baltic unity run called “Heartbeats for the Baltics.” 

As the Baltic states are currently experiencing the deepest recessions in the European Union, all three presidents stressed the need to revive the spirit of the “Baltic Way,” the name given to the human chain created on August 23, 1989, to call for the re- establishment of the three countries’ independence. 

Some 2 million people participated in the original event, forming a 600-kilometre unbroken chain from Tallinn, through Riga, to Vilnius. 

The Heartbeats for the Baltics event will see thousands of runners following the same route in a 24-hour relay race starting in Vilnius on August 22. 

Estonian President Ilves said: “Let’s stay together in Estonia, and also with our friends in Latvia and Lithuania. I think that this run through three countries is a good idea which everyone should support.” 

President Zatlers of Latvia spoke of “a new Baltic Way” that would “confirm unity,” while Lithuanian President Grybauskaite said it was “very important” to stand together. 

“We can reduce the negative consequences of the recession, undertake greater responsibilities and be more courageous in dealing with the challenges of our age,” Grybauskaite said. 

Besides the Heartbeats for the Baltics run, several other activities are planned to mark the occasion. Motorcylists will be riding the route in a parallel event, with flying clubs participating in an airborne version.

  http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/printstory.php?news=281690

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BC, Tallinn, 17.08.2009.
 

On August 23, the Karksi municipality from Estonia and the Nauksene municipality from Latvia will unveil a memorial for the 20th anniversary of the Baltic Way in the Lilli-Ungurin border crossing point, writes the National Broadcasting/LETA.

The monument depicts seven life-sized human figures cut from the metal wall, standing, hand-in-hand. The author of the monument is the Latvian artist Andris Dunkurs who works with metals.

On behalf of Estonia, the minister of foreign affairs Urmas Paet, professor Rein Taagepera and the Viljandi County People’s Front leader Arnold Kimber will give speeches at the opening ceremony. Tõnis Mägi, Ieva Akuratere and local performers will perform.

A symbolic Baltic Way chain will be formed with those who attend the ceremony and a folk party will follow the ceremony.

 

BC, Tallinn, 17.08.2009.
 

On August 23, the Karksi municipality from Estonia and the Nauksene municipality from Latvia will unveil a memorial for the 20th anniversary of the Baltic Way in the Lilli-Ungurin border crossing point, writes the National Broadcasting/LETA.

The monument depicts seven life-sized human figures cut from the metal wall, standing, hand-in-hand. The author of the monument is the Latvian artist Andris Dunkurs who works with metals.

On behalf of Estonia, the minister of foreign affairs Urmas Paet, professor Rein Taagepera and the Viljandi County People’s Front leader Arnold Kimber will give speeches at the opening ceremony. Tõnis Mägi, Ieva Akuratere and local performers will perform.

A symbolic Baltic Way chain will be formed with those who attend the ceremony and a folk party will follow the ceremony.

 

http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/baltic_news/?doc=3684&ins_print

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Russia imposes restrictions on Lithuania’s exports of dairy products

Danuta Pavilenene, BC, Vilnius/Moscow, 17.08.2009.
As of this Monday, the Russian Federal Agency for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision introduces temporary restrictions on the imports of Lithuanian dairy products.
090813_pienas_produkti.jpg

 

According to the site vesti.ru/LETA, four Lithuanian milk processing companies were banned from exporting milk, sour cream, curd and butter to Russia. The Russian veterinary service reported that these dairy products contained the prohibited antibiotic tetracycline.

Russian specialists intend to visit and inspect these Lithuanian companies in the short-run.

The Lithuanian State Food and Veterinary Service reacted to the document concerning the prohibition of exports which was presented by the Russian Federal Agency for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision and inspected the companies.

Another nine companies have also been crossed out from the list of exporters due to non-compliance with Russia’s regulations: several meat processing companies, suppliers of fish and refrigeration products. A total of 110 Lithuanian milk processing companies export to Russia.

http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/markets_and_companies/?doc=17062

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Capitals Hire Arturs Irbe as Goaltending Coach
http://capitals.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=469964
Thursday, 08.13.2009 / 9:03 AM / News

 
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ARLINGTON, Va. – The Washington Capitals have hired Arturs Irbe as the organization’s goaltending coach, vice president and general manager George McPhee announced today. Irbe replaces Dave Prior, who recently resigned after 12 years with the club to spend more time with his family.

Irbe, 42, is a native of Riga, Latvia, and served as the goaltending coach for his hometown Dinamo Riga last season in the Kontinental Hockey League. He has also worked with the Latvian national team, which he represented in the 2002 and 2006 Olympics. Irbe is also a former teammate of Capitals’ assistant coach Dean Evason, as both players were with the San Jose Sharks from 1991-93.

Irbe native is a 13-year NHL veteran and played for San Jose, Dallas, Vancouver and Carolina. He played in 568 games and compiled a career record of 218-236-79 while appearing in two NHL All-Star Games (1994, 1999). His last NHL season was 2003-04, and he finished his NHL career with a 2.83 goals-against average and an .899 save percentage. Irbe played professionally in Europe after he left the NHL and retired completely after appearing in six games with Slovakia’s HK Nitra in 2006-07.

Irbe is fluent in English, Latvian, Russian and also speaks some German. He was selected in the 10th round, 196th overall, in the 1989 NHL Entry Draft by the Minnesota North Stars. He spent five years in the San Jose organization and made his NHL debut in the 1991-92 season when he appeared in 13 games. Irbe played in 74 games for the Sharks during 1993-94 and set an NHL record (since broken) by playing 4,412 minutes in the regular season. He spent the 1996-97 season with Dallas and the 1997-98 season with Vancouver before joining Carolina for the final six years of his career.

Irbe became a fixture in the Carolina net and played more than 50 games in each of his first four seasons with the Hurricanes. He registered career-best marks in GAA (2.22) and in save percentage (.923) during the 1998-99 season, his first with Carolina. He played a career high 77 games during the 2000-01 season and a year later he helped lead Carolina to the Stanley Cup final.

Intelligence Guidance: Week of Aug. 16, 2009

Afghan women queue in Kandahar on Aug. 1 to learn how to vote in the upcoming Afghan presidential election
Afghan women queue in Kandahar on Aug. 1 to learn how to vote in the upcoming Afghan presidential election

Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.

1. Peres’ meeting with Medvedev: Israeli President Shimon Peres will be making his way to Sochi this week to meet with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. In this particularly contentious geopolitical environment, the Russians and Israelis will have plenty to discuss. With pressure piling on Iran and U.S.-Russian negotiations unraveling, Israel will demand that Russia stay out of its Middle Eastern turf and refrain from providing critical weapons support to Iran. By the same token, the Russians will want guarantees from the Israelis that they won’t assist the United States in arming the Georgians and Ukrainians in the former Soviet periphery. Keep in mind that the Russians have already engaged in high-level visits to Turkey, Germany and Poland recently. Israel is yet another U.S. ally that the Russians need to keep close. Work the intelligence channels and see if the Israelis and Russians are able to see eye to eye on these security concerns.

2. Iran’s domestic political situation: Keep a close eye on the Iranian domestic scene this week. In an attempt to keep the protest fires alive and defame the regime, reformist leaders are pushing allegations that jailed Iranian protesters were raped and tortured, but the political figures that hold the real power, like Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, appear to be backing down. Will the supreme leader be able to get his regime back in line with threats, or will it take a more forceful crackdown to silence the reformists? Signs of an intensified crackdown plus information we are getting on arms being smuggled to Iranian protesters could indicate more trouble ahead. We especially need to follow up on these rumors of arms shipments to see if Iran’s foreign adversaries — namely the United States and Saudi Arabia — are willing to go to such lengths to up the ante with Tehran.

3. Afghan elections: Afghanistan will be holding national elections Aug. 20. Incumbent President Hamid Karzai is still leading in the polls, but his opponents are starting to close in, which could lead to a run-off. The outcome of these elections is not that important — we expect the government to be just as fractured as before. Still, watch for any last-minute political deals in the lead-up to election day. We also need to closely monitor the Taliban attitude toward the polls. Some Taliban groupings in remote areas are making temporary peace deals with the government ahead of these elections, which could be indications of Kabul’s chances of success in Taliban negotiations after these elections are wrapped up.

4. U.S.-Colombian talks: A Colombian delegation will travel to the United States this weekend to put some of the finishing touches on an agreement to increase U.S. access to Colombian bases to compensate for the loss of an Ecuadorian base from which the United States conducts counternarcotics operations. Bogota and Washington are far closer allies than Quito and Washington, and U.S.-Colombian military cooperation by itself is established and routine. The single most important element of this development will be any shifts in mission focus and military objectives as the base of operations shifts from Ecuador to Colombia.

5. The European economy: Trade and construction statistics for the European Union are supposed to be released this week. Given the rather surprising increase in quarter-on-quarter gross domestic product growth for France and Germany that came to light this past week, we are going to need to drill down into these numbers to better determine how long it might take for the Europeans to pull out of this recession and address their underlying economic weaknesses.

 

 
 

 

 

 
August 19, 2009
 

 

 

 
 
 
 
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